Chapter 029: Defeat in Battle

The oil lamp flickered, casting shifting shadows, and Xue Rui's expression wavered between gloom and brightness. Liu Ren, noticing his tightly furrowed brows, couldn't help but ask with curiosity, "Rui'er, do you find something amiss?"

Xue Rui hesitated for a moment, then lowered his voice, "Uncle, lately I've been dreaming that the imperial army will suffer a defeat, that the Wala forces might even reach the capital. If such a thing truly happens, and the grain Grandfather has collected isn’t delivered in time, the Wala soldiers will seize it all. We could lose everything."

"The imperial army will be defeated?" Liu Ren was taken aback, then laughed, "Impossible. This time the court has deployed five hundred thousand troops. The Wala only have a few thousand riders. If they hear the Emperor himself is leading the campaign, they’ll flee in panic. How could they dare to attack?"

Though he spoke of half a million soldiers, in truth there were only about two hundred thousand troops, supplemented by civilian laborers—far fewer than claimed. The numbers were just for show.

Seeing Liu Ren’s disbelief, Xue Rui pressed anxiously, "Uncle, don’t forget, my master is a specialist in divining celestial signs, and both he and the old sage Huangfu believe that the recent movement of the Ziwei Star was a warning from Heaven. It coincided with His Majesty’s insistence on the campaign. This isn’t just something I dreamed."

In ancient times, belief in supernatural omens was widespread, especially when the officers of the Imperial Observatory, whose task was to interpret celestial signs, declared the campaign ill-fated. Liu Ren, too, began to worry.

"The grain has all been harvested and stored in the warehouse, just waiting for the merchants to transport it. I’ll return first thing in the morning and ask your grandfather to urge the merchants to move quickly."

"That would be best," Xue Rui nodded.

At this point, there was no other solution. If the grain could be moved before the disaster at Tumubao, once payment was settled, the Liu family would be untouched by any aftermath.

The next morning, as soon as the city gates opened, Liu Ren set off. Before leaving, he gave Liu’s family seven or eight taels of loose silver and several strings of copper coins to use for the time being, saying that any further arrangements would have to wait until he consulted his father.

With this silver, Xue Rui estimated they could hold out until the capital was safe, and his worries eased.

...

The following days passed smoothly for Xue Rui. Having left the archives office, he barely saw Peng Ying, and thus avoided any further conflicts.

In the Autumn Department, Xue Rui managed the paper supplies with diligence, significantly reducing waste. Cui Shizuo was highly satisfied and finally entrusted Xue Rui with the management of all writing materials as well.

The astronomy students in the Autumn Department were naturally displeased, but dared not truly turn against Xue Rui for fear he might restrict their supplies in the future. Thus, they grudgingly accepted the arrangement.

Xue Rui was awaiting the coming disaster at Tumubao, and had little inclination to play political games with the astronomy students. To maintain stability, he did whatever he could to help them, making their work easier.

Neither side wished to offend the other, and after a few days of adjustment, they reached a subtle equilibrium.

During this period, the only ripple in the Imperial Observatory was a dispatch in the official gazette reporting news from the frontier.

On July 16, the very day the Emperor set out on his campaign, the Ming army clashed with the Wala cavalry at Datong Town, a thousand miles away. The battle ended in a crushing defeat for the Ming. Commander-in-chief Song Ying and General Zhu Mian were both killed at Yanghe Pass, and their troops were decimated.

Xue Rui received this dispatch on August 7—twenty-one days after the events took place. The delay was largely because Hu Deqing, the presiding officer, was absent, and the Imperial Observatory was not an important office; the officials left in charge rarely paid attention to frontline reports. Thus, news arrived much later than at other offices.

When news of the defeat spread, the astronomy students buzzed with speculation. Before the Emperor’s campaign, Huangfu Zhonghe had already petitioned that the expedition was ill-fated, warning that disaster might ensue if the Emperor pressed ahead.

According to the gazette, the defeat at Yanghe Pass seemed to fulfill Huangfu Zhonghe’s prophecy.

The losses were immense: the two generals killed were the Marquis of Xining and the Lord of Wu Jin, and their armies were wiped out—a rare calamity in Ming history.

People began to wonder whether the prophecy of the former Director Huangfu Zhonghe was about to come true.

With this defeat, the officials at the Observatory began to pay much more attention to frontline news. The chief official, Xu Dun, ordered someone to copy the gazette from the Ministry of Communications daily, so they could stay informed.

The latest dispatch stated that the Emperor had decided to return to the capital, which brought relief to all.

Yet, a puzzling detail emerged: the army was not taking the shortest route back through the Zijing Pass, but was instead detouring through the far more distant Juyong Pass.

The gazette gave no explanation for this choice, and the officials at the Observatory were baffled, unable to understand why the army would choose a longer route.

But Xue Rui knew the reason well.

Initially, Wang Zhen had agreed to return through Zijing Pass, as his hometown Weizhou lay along the route. The Emperor could visit, allowing Wang Zhen to return home in glory.

But midway, Wang Zhen worried that marching such a large army through Weizhou would trample the villagers’ crops. So he abruptly changed the route, choosing the more distant Datong-Juyong Pass line to return to the capital.

If history remained unchanged, this grave error by Wang Zhen would lead the Ming dynasty into its most devastating defeat at the hands of foreign forces since its founding.

This catastrophe would cut short the Ming’s rising fortunes, sending the vast empire into a gradual decline.

To prepare for the coming upheaval, Xue Rui had been making preparations—stockpiling daily necessities like firewood, rice, oil, and salt, and asking Zheng Debiao to hire a carpenter and mason to reinforce doors and windows, just in case.

At first, Liu’s family didn’t believe Xue Rui’s warnings, but after hearing of the defeat at Yanghe Pass on July 16, their doubts began to waver.

While Xue Rui stockpiled grain and repaired the house, silver flowed out like water. Liu’s family, though distressed, did not stop him.

Better to believe than ignore, she thought. If the warnings proved true, these preparations might save their lives.

...

These days, Xue Rui’s greatest frustration was that his master paid him little attention.

Whenever he visited, the old man was scowling and muttering, sometimes even cursing him as a little rascal.

It wasn’t that Xue Rui had been disrespectful or made any grave mistake.

The problem was that he, together with the master’s granddaughter Hu Ying’er, had imposed a ban on alcohol, which greatly displeased the old man.

Ever since Xue Rui had given Hu Ying’er a dietary remedy for her illness, the Hu family’s meals became much lighter, and seafood and wine disappeared from the table.

At first, Hu Zhong didn’t mind, but gradually noticed the change and asked his granddaughter why their meals had deteriorated so sharply, despite not lacking funds.

Hu Ying’er initially tried to make excuses, but when she ran out of explanations, she confessed that she’d gotten a remedy to ease his illness and wanted to treat him.

Hu Zhong had tried countless remedies over the years, none of which had worked, so he no longer believed in them.

Now his granddaughter brought him a dietary cure, forbidding wine, fish, shrimp, and crab. Naturally, he was resistant.

Grandfather and granddaughter nearly quarreled over it. Xue Rui tried to mediate, but barely said a word before Hu Zhong branded him an accomplice and scolded him thoroughly.

Unable to retort, Xue Rui could only hope the dietary remedy would take effect soon.

Otherwise, he’d have to endure the wrath of both Hu Zhong and his granddaughter...